DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2039-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85026463377
论文题名: Impacts of Antarctic fast dynamics on sea-level projections and coastal flood defense
作者: Wong T.E. ; Bakker A.M.R. ; Keller K.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 144, 期: 2 起始页码: 347
结束页码: 364
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Cliff failure and hydrofracturing
; Climate impacts
; Coastal flood defense
; Sea-level projections
; West Antarctic ice sheet
Scopus关键词: Floods
; Glaciers
; Network security
; Sea level
; Uncertainty analysis
; Antarctic ice sheets
; Climate impacts
; Coastal flooding
; Coastal floods
; Global temperatures
; Hydro-fracturing
; Probabilistic estimates
; West antarctic ice sheets
; Cost benefit analysis
; cliff
; climate effect
; coastal protection
; coastal zone management
; cost-benefit analysis
; failure mechanism
; flooding
; global climate
; ice sheet
; probability
; risk assessment
; sea level change
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Strategies to manage the risks posed by future sea-level rise hinge on a sound characterization of the inherent uncertainties. One of the major uncertainties is the possible rapid disintegration of large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet in response to rising global temperatures. This could potentially lead to several meters of sea-level rise during the next few centuries. Previous studies have typically been silent on two coupled questions: (i) What are probabilistic estimates of this “fast dynamic” contribution to sea-level rise? (ii) What are the implications for strategies to manage coastal flooding risks? Here, we present probabilistic hindcasts and projections of sea-level rise to 2100. The fast dynamic mechanism is approximated by a simple parameterization, designed to allow for a careful quantification of the uncertainty in its contribution to sea-level rise. We estimate that global temperature increases ranging from 1.9 to 3.1 °C coincide with fast Antarctic disintegration, and these contributions account for sea-level rise of 21–74 cm this century (5–95% range, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). We use a simple cost-benefit analysis of coastal defense to demonstrate in a didactic exercise how neglecting this mechanism and associated uncertainty can (i) lead to strategies which fall sizably short of protection targets and (ii) increase the expected net costs. © 2017, Springer Science+Business Media B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83923
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, 2217 EESB Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Rijkswaterstaat, Ministry of Infrastructure and Environment, The Hague, Netherlands; Department of Geosciences, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Wong T.E.,Bakker A.M.R.,Keller K.. Impacts of Antarctic fast dynamics on sea-level projections and coastal flood defense[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,144(2)