| DOI: | 10.1007/s10584-017-1968-2
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-85018492389
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| 论文题名: | Using population projections in climate change analysis |
| 作者: | Rozell D.
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| 刊名: | Climatic Change
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| ISSN: | 0165-0009
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| EISSN: | 1573-1480
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| 出版年: | 2017
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| 卷: | 142, 期:2018-03-04 | | 起始页码: | 521
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| 结束页码: | 529
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| 语种: | 英语
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| Scopus关键词: | Climate models
; Cost benefit analysis
; Population dynamics
; Systems analysis
; Change analysis
; Climate change policies
; Cost benefits
; Integrated assessment models
; Most likely
; Research results
; United Nations
; World population
; Climate change
; assessment method
; climate change
; climate modeling
; comparative study
; environmental policy
; population modeling
; prediction
; probability
; uncertainty analysis
; United Nations
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| 英文摘要: | The two leading sources of long-range population projections, the United Nations (UN) and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), currently disagree on the most likely end-of-the-century world population by over two billion people. Because climate change policy models are influenced by population uncertainty, this poses an underappreciated problem for analysts. Furthermore, long-range population projections have not been predictably stable over time and climate change policymodels have not consistently used one set of population projections. This only increases the difficulty of comparing research results. Comparing the UN and IIASA population projections, the UN’s probabilistic population projections should be used with caution as they tend to understate the uncertainty in long-range population forecasts. Currently, the IIASA scenario projections are better suited to long-range climate change policy analysis. As a final recommendation, a simple demographic sub-model is proposed for use in costbenefit climate change integrated assessment models that performs better than current alternatives. © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2017. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84026
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | Stony Brook University, New York, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Rozell D.. Using population projections in climate change analysis[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,142(2018-03-04)
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