DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1852-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84995480887
论文题名: Impacts of climate change on streamflow in the upper Yangtze River basin
作者: Su B. ; Huang J. ; Zeng X. ; Gao C. ; Jiang T.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 141, 期: 3 起始页码: 533
结束页码: 546
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Hydrological modeling
; The upper Yangtze River
; Uncertainty
Scopus关键词: Analysis of variance (ANOVA)
; Climate models
; Hydrology
; Model structures
; Rivers
; Stream flow
; Uncertainty analysis
; Water management
; Watersheds
; General circulation model
; Hydrological modeling
; Hydrological models
; Hydrological response
; Increasing temperatures
; Management practices
; Uncertainty
; Upper Yangtze River
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate forcing
; error correction
; general circulation model
; hydrological modeling
; peak discharge
; river discharge
; river flow
; streamflow
; temperature
; uncertainty analysis
; water management
; China
; Yangtze Basin
英文摘要: The impacts of climate change on streamflow in the upper Yangtze River basin were studied using four hydrological models driven by bias-corrected climate projections from five General Circulation Models under four Representative Concentration Pathways. The basin hydrological responses to climate forcing in future mid-century (2036–2065) and end-century (2070–2099) periods were assessed via comparison of simulation results in these periods to those in the reference period (1981–2010). An analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach was used to quantify the uncertainty sources associated with the climate inputs and hydrological model structures. Overall, the annual average discharge, seasonal high flow, and daily peak discharge were projected to increase in most cases in the twenty-first century but with considerable variability between models under the conditions of increasing temperature and a small to moderate increase in precipitation. Uncertainties in the projections increase over the time and are associated with hydrological model structures, but climate inputs represent the largest source of uncertainty in the upper Yangtze projections. This study assessed streamflow projections without considering water management practices within the basin. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84034
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, China; Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster, Nanjing University of Information Science &Technology, Nanjing, China; National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; School of Hydropower & Information Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China; College of Territorial Resources and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu, China
Recommended Citation:
Su B.,Huang J.,Zeng X.,et al. Impacts of climate change on streamflow in the upper Yangtze River basin[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,141(3)