DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1640-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84960086595
论文题名: Projections of climate change effects on discharge and inundation in the Amazon basin
作者: Sorribas M.V. ; Paiva R.C.D. ; Melack J.M. ; Bravo J.M. ; Jones C. ; Carvalho L. ; Beighley E. ; Forsberg B. ; Costa M.H.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 136, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 555
结束页码: 570
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Floods
; Rivers
; Water resources
; Biogeochemical process
; Climate projection
; Flood vulnerabilities
; Future projections
; Hydro-power generation
; Hydrologic regime
; Regional hydrological model
; River hydraulics
; Climate change
; biogeochemical cycle
; climate change
; flooding
; floodplain
; hydroelectric power
; hydrological modeling
; hydrological regime
; low flow
; nutrient cycling
; river discharge
; Amazon Basin
; Amazonia
; Andes
英文摘要: Climate change and its effects on the hydrologic regime of the Amazon basin can impact biogeochemical processes, transportation, flood vulnerability, fisheries and hydropower generation. We examined projections of climate change on discharge and inundation extent in the Amazon basin using the regional hydrological model MGB-IPH with 1-dimensional river hydraulic and water storage simulation in floodplains. Future projections (2070–2099) were obtained from five GCMs from IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report CMIP5. Climate projections have uncertainty and results from different climate models did not agree in total Amazon flooded area or discharge anomalies along the main stem river. Overall, model runs agree better with wetter (drier) conditions over western (eastern) Amazon. Results indicate that increased mean and maximum river discharge for large rivers draining the Andes in the northwest contributes to increased mean and maximum discharge and inundation extent over Peruvian floodplains and Solimões River (annual mean-max: +9 % - +18.3 %) in western Amazonia. Decreased river discharges (mostly dry season) are projected for eastern basins, and decreased inundation extent at low water (annual min) in the central (−15.9 %) and lower Amazon (−4.4 %). © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84284
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: IPH/UFRGS - Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil; Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States; Geography Department, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States; Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, United States; Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, Manaus, Brazil; Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, Brazil
Recommended Citation:
Sorribas M.V.,Paiva R.C.D.,Melack J.M.,et al. Projections of climate change effects on discharge and inundation in the Amazon basin[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,136(2018-03-04)