DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1636-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84964225036
论文题名: A system’s approach to assess the exposure of agricultural production to climate change and variability
作者: Anandhi A. ; Steiner J.L. ; Bailey N.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 136, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 647
结束页码: 659
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Agriculture
; Climatology
; Flowcharting
; Adaptive capacity
; Aggregation methods
; Agricultural productions
; Climate variability and change
; Conceptual model
; Information sharing
; Multiple stressors
; Systematic methodology
; Climate change
; agricultural economics
; agricultural production
; agrometeorology
; climate change
; conceptual framework
; environmental stress
; extreme event
; food production
; profitability
; Kansas
; United States
英文摘要: Estimating the exposure of agriculture to climate variability and change can help us understand key vulnerabilities and improve adaptive capacity, which is vital to secure and increase world food production to feed its growing population. A number of indices to estimate exposure are available in literature. However, testing or validating them is difficult and reveals a considerable variability, and no systematic methodology has been developed to guide users in selecting indices for particular applications. This need is addressed in this paper by developing a flowchart from a conceptual model that uses a system’s approach. Also, we compare five approaches to estimate exposure indices (EIs) to study the exposure of agriculture to climate variability and change: single stressor-mean climate, single stressor-extreme climate, multiple stressor-mean climate, multiple stressor-extreme climate; and combinations of the above approaches. The developed flowchart requires gathering information on the region of study, including its agriculture, stressor(s), climate factor(s) (CF), period of interest and the method of aggregation. The flowchart was applied to a case study in Kansas to better understand the five approaches to estimate EIs and the implications of the choices made in each step on the estimated the exposure. The flowchart provides options that guide EI estimation by selecting the most appropriate stressor(s), associated CF(s), and aggregation methods when a detailed methodological analysis is possible, or proposes a default method when data or resources do not allow a detailed analysis. Climate adaptation involves integration of a multitude of factors across complex systems. A more standardized approach to assessing exposure can promote information sharing across different locations and systems as this rapidly evolving area of study moves forward. © 2016, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84289
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Biological and Agricultural Systems Engineering, Florida Agricultural and Mechanical University, Tallahassee, FL, United States; US Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, Grazinglands Research Laboratory, 7207 West Cheyenne Street, El Reno, OK, United States
Recommended Citation:
Anandhi A.,Steiner J.L.,Bailey N.. A system’s approach to assess the exposure of agricultural production to climate change and variability[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,136(2018-03-04)