DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1549-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84959107977
论文题名: Assessing decision support systems and levels of confidence to narrow the climate information “usability gap”
作者: Moss R.H.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 135, 期: 1 起始页码: 143
结束页码: 155
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Artificial intelligence
; Climate change
; Decision support systems
; Risk assessment
; Risk management
; Climate assessment
; Climate change risks
; Climate information
; Climate science
; Decision makers
; Decision support process
; Decision support tools
; Management decisions
; Decision making
; climate change
; climate effect
; decision making
; decision support system
; risk
; risk assessment
; United States
英文摘要: This article focuses on the implications for the US National Climate Assessment (NCA) of diversifying information needs to support climate change risk management. It describes how the Third US National Climate Assessment (NCA3) evolved to begin to narrow the gap between information from climate and impact scientists and “intermediaries” (individuals who have expertise in climate science, communication, and decision-support processes)—who are sometimes collectively described as “producers” in this article—and the decision-making needs of a wide range of “users” (individuals involved in advising or making a wide range of policy and management decisions). One step in the evolution of the NCA3 included adding a chapter to assess decision-support tools and systems being used in climate-related decisions. Another involved efforts to improve characterization of the level of confidence of NCA3 authors in their findings to help decision-makers and their advisors differentiate well-established and more preliminary conclusions. This paper lays out an argument for increasing the role of the NCA in assessing decision-support systems in the Fourth Assessment (NCA4) and the Sustained Assessment. It also briefly reviews approaches and potential next steps related to characterizing uncertainty and communicating confidence intended to improve application of assessment findings by decision-makers. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht (outside the USA). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84364
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific NW National Laboratory and University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Moss R.H.. Assessing decision support systems and levels of confidence to narrow the climate information “usability gap”[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,135(1)