DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0853-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84959237433
论文题名: A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity
作者: Gosling S.N. ; Arnell N.W.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 134, 期: 3 起始页码: 371
结束页码: 385
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Uncertainty analysis
; Water resources
; Watersheds
; A1B scenarios
; Change patterns
; Global climate model
; Global-mean temperature
; Hydrological modeling
; SRES Scenario
; Water scarcity
; Water stress indices
; Climate change
英文摘要: This paper presents a global scale assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Patterns of climate change from 21 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four SRES scenarios are applied to a global hydrological model to estimate water resources across 1339 watersheds. The Water Crowding Index (WCI) and the Water Stress Index (WSI) are used to calculate exposure to increases and decreases in global water scarcity due to climate change. 1.6 (WCI) and 2.4 (WSI) billion people are estimated to be currently living within watersheds exposed to water scarcity. Using the WCI, by 2050 under the A1B scenario, 0.5 to 3.1 billion people are exposed to an increase in water scarcity due to climate change (range across 21 GCMs). This represents a higher upper-estimate than previous assessments because scenarios are constructed from a wider range of GCMs. A substantial proportion of the uncertainty in the global-scale effect of climate change on water scarcity is due to uncertainty in the estimates for South Asia and East Asia. Sensitivity to the WCI and WSI thresholds that define water scarcity can be comparable to the sensitivity to climate change pattern. More of the world will see an increase in exposure to water scarcity than a decrease due to climate change but this is not consistent across all climate change patterns. Additionally, investigation of the effects of a set of prescribed global mean temperature change scenarios show rapid increases in water scarcity due to climate change across many regions of the globe, up to 2 °C, followed by stabilisation to 4 °C. © 2013, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84400
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, United Kingdom; Walker Institute for Climate System Research, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Gosling S.N.,Arnell N.W.. A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,134(3)