DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1522-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84951568798
论文题名: Projected robust shift of climate zones over West Africa in response to anthropogenic climate change for the late 21st century
作者: Sylla M.B. ; Elguindi N. ; Giorgi F. ; Wisser D.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 134, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 241
结束页码: 253
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Ecology
; Ecosystems
; Water management
; Agricultural activities
; Anthropogenic climate changes
; Ecosystem services
; Future climate
; Gulf of Guinea
; Higher resolution
; Multi-model ensemble
; Semi-arid conditions
; Climate change
; anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; climate classification
; climate modeling
; ecosystem service
; land cover
; orography
; precipitation (climatology)
; seasonality
; twenty first century
; vulnerability
; water management
; water stress
; Atlantic Ocean
; Gulf of Guinea
; Sahel [Sub-Saharan Africa]
; West Africa
英文摘要: The response of West African climate zones to anthropogenic climate change during the late 21st century is investigated using the revised Thornthwaite climate classification applied to ensembles of CMIP5, CORDEX, and higher-resolution RegCM4 experiments (HIRES). The ensembles reproduce fairly well the observed climate zones, although with some notable discrepancies. CORDEX and HIRES provide realistic fine-scale information which enhances that from the coarser-scale CMIP5, especially in the Gulf of Guinea encompassing marked landcover and topography gradients. The late 21st century projections reveal an extension of torrid climates throughout West Africa. In addition, the Sahel, predominantly semi-arid in present-day conditions, is projected to face moderately persistent future arid climate. Similarly, the Gulf of Guinea shows a tendency in the future to experience highly seasonal semi-arid conditions. Finally, wet and moist regions with an extreme seasonality around orographic zones become less extensive under future climate change. Consequently, West Africa evolves towards increasingly torrid, arid and semi-arid regimes with the recession of moist and wet zones mostly because of the temperature forcing, although precipitation can be locally an important factor. These features are common to all multimodel ensembles, a sign of robustness, with few disagreements in their areal extents, and with more pronounced changes in the higher-resolution RCM projections. Such changes point towards an increased risk of water stress for managed and unmanaged ecosystems, and thus add an element of vulnerability to future anthropogenic climate change for West African water management, ecosystem services and agricultural activities. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84428
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), WASCAL Competence Center, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Earth System Physics (ESP) Section, Trieste, Italy; Center for Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Sylla M.B.,Elguindi N.,Giorgi F.,et al. Projected robust shift of climate zones over West Africa in response to anthropogenic climate change for the late 21st century[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,134(2018-01-02)