DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1469-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84951569586
论文题名: Characterizing the effects of policy instruments on the future costs of carbon capture for coal power plants
作者: Nemet G.F. ; Baker E. ; Barron B. ; Harms S.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 133, 期: 2 起始页码: 155
结束页码: 168
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Coal storage
; Costs
; Digital storage
; Probability distributions
; Carbon capture and storage
; Demonstration plants
; Expert elicitation
; Integrated assessment models
; Knowledge spillovers
; Low-carbon technologies
; Policy instruments
; Technological change
; Carbon capture
; carbon dioxide
; carbon sequestration
; coal-fired power plant
; cost analysis
; pollution policy
; research and development
英文摘要: We develop a methodology with which to assess the effects of policy instruments on the long-term abatement and costs of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies for coal power plants. Using an expert elicitation, historical data on the determinants of technological change in energy, values from the engineering literature, and demand estimates from an integrated assessment model, we simulate ranges of outcomes between 2025 and 2095. We introduce probability distributions of all important parameters and propagate them through the model to generate probability distributions of electricity costs, abatement costs, and CO2 avoided over time. Carbon pricing has larger effects than R&D and subsidies. But much of the range of outcomes is driven by uncertainty in other parameters, such as capital costs and returns to scale. Availability of other low carbon technologies, particularly bioenergy with CCS affects outcomes. Subsidies have the biggest impacts when they coincide with expanding manufacturing scale of CCS components. Our results point to 4 parameters for which better information is needed for future work informing technology policy to address climate change: capital costs, demonstration plants, growth constraints, and knowledge spillovers among technologies. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84484
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: La Follette School of Public Affairs, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States; Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Massachusetts-Amherst, Amherst, MA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Nemet G.F.,Baker E.,Barron B.,et al. Characterizing the effects of policy instruments on the future costs of carbon capture for coal power plants[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,133(2)