DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1447-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84942502289
论文题名: Moving targets—cost-effective climate policy under scientific uncertainty
作者: Gerlagh R. ; Michielsen T.O.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 132, 期: 4 起始页码: 519
结束页码: 529
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Cost effectiveness
; Stabilization
; Abatement costs
; Climate policy
; Cost effective
; Integrated assessment models
; Optimal balance
; Scientific uncertainty
; Stabilization target
; Working groups
; Climate change
; abatement cost
; climate change
; cost analysis
; decadal variation
; environmental policy
; integrated approach
; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
; regulatory approach
; threshold
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: The IPCC’s fifth assessment report of Working Group III has just come out. It pays special attention to the 2 °C temperature target and tells us that the window of opportunity to prevent such climate change is rapidly closing. Yet, the report also presents a portfolio of stabilization targets, reflecting a fundamental ambiguity: there is no unique “dangerous” climate threshold. Here, we describe a framework for the evaluation of optimal climate policy given an uncertain formal climate threshold. We find that uncertainty leads to moving targets: even when the available information does not change, future regulators will tend to relax current climate plans. We develop a reduced form integrated assessment model to assess the quantitative significance of our findings. We calibrate preferences such that in 2000 a stabilization target of 450 ppmv maintains the optimal balance between climate risks and abatement costs. The naïve equilibrium ultimately reaches a peak of 570 ppmv, missing the 2000 stabilizations targets by a wide margin. Our results offer an explanation for the inertia in mitigation efforts over the past decades: policies often delay the majority of abatement efforts. Yet, believing that subsequent regulators will uphold the planned future efforts is self-defeating. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84506
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Economics, CentER, TSC Tilburg University, PO Box 90153, Tilburg, Netherlands; New College, University of Oxford and CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, PO Box 80510, The Hague, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Gerlagh R.,Michielsen T.O.. Moving targets—cost-effective climate policy under scientific uncertainty[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,132(4)