DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1428-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84940724821
论文题名: Impact of climate change on staple food crop production in Nigeria
作者: Mereu V. ; Carboni G. ; Gallo A. ; Cervigni R. ; Spano D.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 132, 期: 2 起始页码: 321
结束页码: 336
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Agriculture
; Climate models
; Computer software
; Crops
; Cultivation
; Food supply
; Agricultural sector
; Agro-ecological zones
; Atmospheric concentration
; Climate change impact
; Climate impact assessment
; Crop simulation model
; Future climate projections
; Precipitation patterns
; Climate change
; agricultural ecosystem
; carbon dioxide
; cassava
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; crop production
; crop yield
; food security
; future prospect
; millet
; precipitation (climatology)
; risk assessment
; software
; temperature effect
; yield response
; Nigeria
; Sub-Saharan Africa
; Manihot esculenta
英文摘要: Climate change impact on the agricultural sector is expected to be significant and extensive in Sub-Saharan Africa, where projected increase in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns could determine sensible reductions in crop yields and concerns for food security achievement. This study presents a multi-model approach to analysing climate change impacts and associated risks for staple food crops in Nigeria. Previous attempts to evaluate climate change impacts in Nigeria had mainly focused on a reduced number of crops, with analysis limited to single experimental fields or specific areas, and in many cases considering only a limited number of climate models. In this work, crop simulation models implemented in the DSSAT-CSM software were used to evaluate climate change impacts on crop production in different Agro-Ecological Zones, considering multiple combinations of soils and climate conditions, varieties and crop management. The climate impact assessment was made using an ensemble of future climate projections, to include uncertainty related to climate projections. Even if precipitations could increase in most parts of Nigeria, this is not likely to offset the crop yield reduction due to the increase in temperatures, particularly over the medium-term period (2050), with yield decreases projected especially for cereals. The short-term effects are more uncertain and yields for cassava and millet might actually increase by 2020. Moreover, yield reductions are only partially mitigated by the direct effect of increased CO2 atmospheric concentration enhancing crop yield. In both periods and for all crops, there is a higher risk that crop yields may fall below the actual risk threshold. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84525
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Department of Science for Nature and Environmental Resources, University of Sassari, via Enrico de Nicola, 9, Sassari, Italy; Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, via Enrico de Nicola, 9, Sassari, Italy; Department of Crop Production, Agricultural Research Agency of Sardinia (AGRIS), Viale Trieste 111, Cagliari, Italy; Environment and Natural Resources (AFTEN) Africa Region, The World Bank1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC, United States
Recommended Citation:
Mereu V.,Carboni G.,Gallo A.,et al. Impact of climate change on staple food crop production in Nigeria[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,132(2)