DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1412-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84937518193
论文题名: Testing climate models using an impact model: what are the advantages?
作者: Stéfanon M. ; Martin-StPaul N.K. ; Leadley P. ; Bastin S. ; Dell’Aquila A. ; Drobinski P. ; Gallardo C.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 131, 期: 4 起始页码: 649
结束页码: 661
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Chains
; Earth (planet)
; Ecology
; Ecosystems
; Forestry
; Isomers
; Earth system model
; Ecological impacts
; Ecological models
; Error amplification
; European beech (fagus sylvatica l.)
; Hydrological cycles
; Process-based modeling
; Regional climate modeling
; Climate models
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; ecological modeling
; ecosystem function
; error correction
; hydrological cycle
; Mediterranean environment
; regional climate
; tree
; Europe
; Fagus sylvatica
英文摘要: Global and regional climate model (GCM and RCM) outputs are often used as climate forcing for ecological impact models, and this potentially results in large cumulative errors because information and error are passed sequentially along the modeling chain from GCM to RCM to impact model. There are also a growing number of Earth system modeling platforms in which climate and ecological models are dynamically coupled, and in this case error amplification due to feedbacks can lead to even more serious problems. It is essential in both cases to rethink the organization of evaluation which typically relies on independent validation at each successive step, and to rely more heavily on analyses that cover the full modeling chain and thus require stronger interactions between climate and impact modelers. In this paper, we illustrate the benefits of using impact models as an additional source of information for evaluating climate models. Four RCMs that are part of the HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in Mediterranean EXperiment) and Mediterranean CORDEX projects (MED-CORDEX) were tested with observed climatology and a process-based model of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) tree growth and forest ecosystem functioning that has been rigorously validated. This two part analysis i) indicates that evaluation of RCMs on climate variables alone may be insufficient to determine the suitability of RCMs for studies of climate-forest interactions and ii) points to areas of improvement in these RCMs that would improve impact studies or behavior in coupled climate-ecosystem models over the spatial domain studied. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84568
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Laboratoire d’Écologie Systématique et Évolution (ESE), (UMR 8079 CNRS/Univ. Paris-Sud/AgroParisTech), Orsay, France; Laboratoire Atmospheres, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (CNRS/UVSQ/UPMC), Guyancourt, France; Ente per le Nuove Technologie, l’Energia e l’Ambiente (ENEA), Climate Section, Rome, Italy; Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) - Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, (CNRS/Ecole Polytechnique/ENS/UPMC), Paris, France; Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales de la UCLM, Toledo, Spain; Ecologie des Forêts Mediterraneennes, INRA, UR629, F-84914 Avignon, France
Recommended Citation:
Stéfanon M.,Martin-StPaul N.K.,Leadley P.,et al. Testing climate models using an impact model: what are the advantages?[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,131(4)