DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1348-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84929956397
论文题名: Present and future Laurentian Great Lakes hydroclimatic conditions as simulated by regional climate models with an emphasis on Lake Michigan-Huron
作者: Music B. ; Frigon A. ; Lofgren B. ; Turcotte R. ; Cyr J.-F.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 130, 期: 4 起始页码: 603
结束页码: 618
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Budget control
; Climate models
; Evaporation
; Gas emissions
; Greenhouse gases
; Lakes
; Uncertainty analysis
; Water management
; Water supply
; Climate change simulations
; Generalized extreme value distribution
; Hydroclimatic conditions
; Laurentian Great Lakes
; Meteorological variables
; Regional climate modelling
; Regional climate models
; Water budget components
; Climate change
; adaptive management
; aerosol
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate signal
; greenhouse gas
; hydrometeorology
; regional climate
; water budget
; Great Lakes [North America]
; Lake Huron
; Lake Michigan
英文摘要: Regional climate modelling represents an appealing approach to projecting Great Lakes water supplies under a changing climate. In this study, we investigate the response of the Great Lakes Basin to increasing greenhouse gas and aerosols emissions using an ensemble of sixteen climate change simulations generated by three different Regional Climate Models (RCMs): CRCM4, HadRM3 and WRFG. Annual and monthly means of simulated hydro-meteorological variables that affect Great Lakes levels are first compared to observation-based estimates. The climate change signal is then assessed by computing differences between simulated future (2041–2070) and present (1971–1999) climates. Finally, an analysis of the annual minima and maxima of the Net Basin Supply (NBS), derived from the simulated NBS components, is conducted using Generalized Extreme Value distribution. Results reveal notable model differences in simulated water budget components throughout the year, especially for the lake evaporation component. These differences are reflected in the resulting NBS. Although uncertainties in observation-based estimates are quite large, our analysis indicates that all three RCMs tend to underestimate NBS in late summer and fall, which is related to biases in simulated runoff, lake evaporation, and over-lake precipitation. The climate change signal derived from the total ensemble mean indicates no change in future mean annual NBS. However, our analysis suggests an amplification of the NBS annual cycle and an intensification of the annual NBS minima in future climate. This emphasizes the need for an adaptive management of water to minimize potential negative implications associated with more severe and frequent NBS minima. © 2015, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84615
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Ouranos - Consortium on Regional Climatology and Adaptation to Climate Change, 550 Sherbrooke West, West Tower, 19th floor Montreal, QC, Canada; NOAA/Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, 4840 S. State Rd., Ann Arbor, MI, United States; Centre d’Expertise Hydrique du Québec (CEHQ), 675 René-Lévesque Est, Québec, QC, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Music B.,Frigon A.,Lofgren B.,et al. Present and future Laurentian Great Lakes hydroclimatic conditions as simulated by regional climate models with an emphasis on Lake Michigan-Huron[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,130(4)