DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1140-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84957727986
论文题名: Climate change impact on precipitation for the Amazon and La Plata basins
作者: Llopart M. ; Coppola E. ; Giorgi F. ; da Rocha R.P. ; Cuadra S.V.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 125, 期: 1 起始页码: 111
结束页码: 125
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Electric power system interconnection
; Feedback
; Moisture
; Oceanography
; Soil moisture
; Surface measurement
; Surface waters
; Central brazils
; Climate change impact
; Dipolar response
; Global climate model
; La Plata basin
; Precipitation change
; Regional climate modeling
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Climate change
英文摘要: We analyze the local and remote impacts of climate change on the hydroclimate of the Amazon and La Plata basins of South America (SA) in an ensemble of four 21st century projections (1970–2100, RCP8.5 scenario) with the regional climate model RegCM4 driven by the HadGEM, GFDL and MPI global climate models (GCMs) over the SA CORDEX domain. Two RegCM4 configurations are used, one employing the CLM land surface and the Emanuel convective schemes, and one using the BATS land surface and Grell (over land) convection schemes. First, we find considerable sensitivity of the precipitation change signal to both the driving GCM and the RegCM4 physics schemes (with the latter even greater than the first), highlighting the pronounced uncertainty of regional projections over the region. However, some improvements in the simulation of the annual cycle of precipitation over the Amazon and La Plata basins is found when using RegCM4, and some consistent change signals across the experiments are found. One is a tendency towards an extension of the dry season over central SA deriving from a late onset and an early retreat of the SA monsoon. The second is a dipolar response consisting of reduced precipitation over the broad Amazon and Central Brazil region and increased precipitation over the La Plata basin and central Argentina. An analysis of the relative influence on the change signal of local soil-moisture feedbacks and remote effects of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) over the Niño 3.4 region indicates that the former is prevalent over the Amazon basin while the latter dominates over the La Plata Basin. Also, the soil moisture feedback has a larger role in RegCM4 than in the GCMs. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84731
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; Earth System Physics, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy; Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation–Embrapa, National Temperate Agriculture Research Centre, Pelotas, Brazil
Recommended Citation:
Llopart M.,Coppola E.,Giorgi F.,et al. Climate change impact on precipitation for the Amazon and La Plata basins[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,125(1)