DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1052-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84896722310
论文题名: Glacial mass balance changes in the Karakoram and Himalaya based on CMIP5 multi-model climate projections
作者: Chaturvedi R.K. ; Kulkarni A. ; Karyakarte Y. ; Joshi J. ; Bala G.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 123, 期: 2 起始页码: 315
结束页码: 328
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate projection
; Emission scenario
; Future climate
; Glacial mass balance
; Low emission scenarios
; Mass balance
; Observational data
; Region-based
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Metamorphic rocks
; Water resources
; Glacial geology
; carbon emission
; climate change
; climate effect
; future prospect
; geoaccumulation
; glacier mass balance
; glacier retreat
; precipitation (climatology)
; temperature effect
; water resource
; Karakoram
英文摘要: The impact of future climate change on the glaciers in the Karakoram and Himalaya (KH) is investigated using CMIP5 multi-model temperature and precipitation projections, and a relationship between glacial accumulation-area ratio and mass balance developed for the region based on the last 30 to 40 years of observational data. We estimate that the current glacial mass balance (year 2000) for the entire KH region is -6.6 ± 1 Gta-1, which decreases about sixfold to -35 ± 2 Gta-1 by the 2080s under the high emission scenario of RCP8.5. However, under the low emission scenario of RCP2.6 the glacial mass loss only doubles to -12 ± 2 Gta-1 by the 2080s. We also find that 10.6 and 27 % of the glaciers could face 'eventual disappearance' by the end of the century under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively, underscoring the threat to water resources under high emission scenarios. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84771
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Center for Sustainable Technology, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India; Divecha Center for Climate Change and Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India; Center for Ecological Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India
Recommended Citation:
Chaturvedi R.K.,Kulkarni A.,Karyakarte Y.,et al. Glacial mass balance changes in the Karakoram and Himalaya based on CMIP5 multi-model climate projections[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,123(2)