DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1022-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84906549086
论文题名: Robustness of pattern scaled climate change scenarios for adaptation decision support
作者: Lopez A. ; Suckling E.B. ; Smith L.A.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 122, 期: 4 起始页码: 555
结束页码: 566
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Decision making
; Decision support systems
; Adaptation decisions
; Anthropogenic climate
; Climate change scenarios
; Climate scenarios
; Future applications
; Global climate model
; Quantitative decision
; Scaling methodology
; Climate models
英文摘要: Pattern scaling offers the promise of exploring spatial details of the climate system response to anthropogenic climate forcings without their full simulation by state-of-the-art Global Climate Models. The circumstances in which pattern scaling methods are capable of delivering on this promise are explored by quantifying its performance in an idealized setting. Given a large ensemble that is assumed to sample the full range of variability and provide quantitative decision-relevant information, the soundness of applying the pattern scaling methodology to generate decision relevant climate scenarios is explored. Pattern scaling is not expected to reproduce its target exactly, of course, and its generic limitations have been well documented since it was first proposed. In this work, using as a particular example the quantification of the risk of heat waves in Southern Europe, it is shown that the magnitude of the error in the pattern scaled estimates can be significant enough to disqualify the use of this approach in quantitative decision-support. This suggests that future application of pattern scaling in climate science should provide decision makers not just a restatement of the assumptions made, but also evidence that the methodology is adequate for purpose in practice for the case under consideration. © 2013, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84783
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: CCCEP, Houghton Street, London, United Kingdom; Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London School of Economics, Houghton Street, London, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Lopez A.,Suckling E.B.,Smith L.A.. Robustness of pattern scaled climate change scenarios for adaptation decision support[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,122(4)