DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1153-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84905399668
论文题名: Beyond climatological extremes - assessing how the odds of hydrometeorological extreme events in South-East Europe change in a warming climate
作者: Sippel S. ; Otto F.E.L.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 125, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 381
结束页码: 398
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate impacts
; Probabilistic event attribution
; Weather ensemble modelling
Scopus关键词: Hazards
; Climate impacts
; Climate simulation
; Extreme weather events
; Hydrometeorological variables
; Multivariate combinations
; Potential change
; Probabilistic assessments
; Probabilistic event attribution
; Climate change
英文摘要: With record breaking heat waves, dryness, and floods in several parts of the world in recent years the question arises whether and to what extent the hazard of hydrometeorological extreme weather events has changed, and if changes can be attributed to specific causes. The methodology of probabilistic event attribution allows to evaluate such potential changes in the occurence probabilities of particular types of extreme events. We show that such a probabilistic assessment not only provides information on changing hazards in hydrometerological events but also permits statements about multivariate combinations of hydrometeorological variables. Hence attribution studies could be targeted specifically towards relevant impacts in particular sectors, if different suitable multivariate proxies are used. We demonstrate our methodology by using combinations of temperature, precipitation and humidity in the large ensemble of climate simulations within the weather@home project in order to derive impact-relevant quantities such as a seasonal water balance and heat stress imposed on the human body. Finally, we estimate the hazard probabilities of those events in South-East Europe, a region that has recently experienced severe summer dryness (2012) in combination with multiple heat waves. © 2014 The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84785
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY, United Kingdom; Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Hans-Knöll-Str. 10, 07745 Jena, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Sippel S.,Otto F.E.L.. Beyond climatological extremes - assessing how the odds of hydrometeorological extreme events in South-East Europe change in a warming climate[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,125(2018-03-04)