DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1179-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84905236613
论文题名: On the relation between weather-related disaster impacts, vulnerability and climate change
作者: Visser H. ; Petersen A.C. ; Ligtvoet W.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 125, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 461
结束页码: 477
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Losses
; Meteorology
; Population statistics
; Weather information services
; Economic assets
; Economic development
; Extreme weather
; Extreme weather events
; Long-term trend
; Non-stationarities
; Number of peoples
; Weather events
; Disasters
英文摘要: Disasters such as floods, storms, heatwaves and droughts can have enormous implications for health, the environment and economic development. In this article, we address the question of how climate change might have influenced the impact of weather-related disasters. This relation is not straightforward, since disaster burden is not influenced by weather and climate events alone-other drivers are growth in population and wealth, and changes in vulnerability. We normalized disaster impacts, analyzed trends in the data and compared them with trends in extreme weather and climate events and vulnerability, following a 3 by 4 by 3 set-up, with three disaster burden categories, four regions and three extreme weather event categories. The trends in normalized disaster impacts show large differences between regions and weather event categories. Despite these variations, our overall conclusion is that the increasing exposure of people and economic assets is the major cause of increasing trends in disaster impacts. This holds for long-term trends in economic losses as well as the number of people affected. We also found similar, though more qualitative, results for the number of people killed; in all three cases, the role played by climate change cannot be excluded. Furthermore, we found that trends in historic vulnerability tend to be stable over time, despite adaptation measures taken by countries. Based on these findings, we derived disaster impact projections for the coming decades. We argue that projections beyond 2030 are too uncertain, not only due to unknown changes in vulnerability, but also due to increasing non-stationarities in normalization relations. © 2014 The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84810
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, Netherlands; Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), London, United Kingdom; Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University, Amsterdam, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Visser H.,Petersen A.C.,Ligtvoet W.. On the relation between weather-related disaster impacts, vulnerability and climate change[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,125(2018-03-04)