DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1080-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84901190157
论文题名: Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes
作者: Slangen A.B.A. ; Carson M. ; Katsman C.A. ; van de Wal R.S.W. ; Köhl A. ; Vermeersen L.L.A. ; Stammer D.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 124, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 317
结束页码: 332
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climate models
; Gravitation
; Groundwater
; Ocean currents
; Reactor cores
; Antarctic Circumpolar Currents
; Climate change scenarios
; Glacial Isostatic Adjustments
; Groundwater depletion
; North Atlantic Ocean
; Subpolar North Atlantic
; Total uncertainties
; Uncertainty estimates
; Sea level
; climate modeling
; coastal zone
; sea ice
; sea level change
; twenty first century
; weather forecasting
英文摘要: We present regional sea-level projections and associated uncertainty estimates for the end of the 21st century. We show regional projections of sea-level change resulting from changing ocean circulation, increased heat uptake and atmospheric pressure in CMIP5 climate models. These are combined with model- and observation-based regional contributions of land ice, groundwater depletion and glacial isostatic adjustment, including gravitational effects due to mass redistribution. A moderate and a warmer climate change scenario are considered, yielding a global mean sea-level rise of 0.54 ±0.19 m and 0.71 ±0.28 m respectively (mean ±1σ). Regionally however, changes reach up to 30 % higher in coastal regions along the North Atlantic Ocean and along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and up to 20 % higher in the subtropical and equatorial regions, confirming patterns found in previous studies. Only 50 % of the global mean value is projected for the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean, the Arctic Ocean and off the western Antarctic coast. Uncertainty estimates for each component demonstrate that the land ice contribution dominates the total uncertainty. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84826
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, Netherlands; Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), University of Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 53, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), P.O. Box 201, 3730 AE De Bilt, Netherlands; Delft Climate Institute, TU Delft, Kluyverweg 1, 2629 HS Delft, Netherlands; Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ), Landsdiep 4, 1797 SZ 't Horntje, Netherlands; CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research (CMAR), GPO Box 1538, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Slangen A.B.A.,Carson M.,Katsman C.A.,et al. Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,124(2018-01-02)