globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1111-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84905386228
论文题名:
A probabilistic framework for assessing vulnerability to climate variability and change: The case of the US water supply system
作者: Foti R.; Ramirez J.A.; Brown T.C.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 125, 期:2018-03-04
起始页码: 413
结束页码: 427
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Evapotranspiration ; Water supply systems ; Climate variability and change ; Global climate model ; Probabilistic framework ; Socio-economics ; Southern great plains ; Standard deviation ; Supply and demand ; Vulnerability analysis ; Economics
英文摘要: We introduce a probabilistic framework for vulnerability analysis and use it to quantify current and future vulnerability of the US water supply system. We also determine the contributions of hydro-climatic and socio-economic drivers to the changes in projected vulnerability. For all scenarios and global climate models examined, the US Southwest including California and the southern Great Plains was consistently found to be the most vulnerable. For most of the US, the largest contributions to changes in vulnerability come from changes in supply. However, for some areas of the West changes in vulnerability are caused mainly by changes in demand. These changes in supply and demand result mainly from changes in evapotranspiration rather than from changes in precipitation. Importantly, changes in vulnerability from projected changes in the standard deviations of precipitation and evapotranspiration are of about the same magnitude or larger than those from changes in the corresponding means over most of the US, except in large areas of the Great Plains, in central California and southern and central Texas. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84846
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States; Rocky Mountain Research Station, U. S. Forest Service, Fort Collins, CO, United States

Recommended Citation:
Foti R.,Ramirez J.A.,Brown T.C.. A probabilistic framework for assessing vulnerability to climate variability and change: The case of the US water supply system[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,125(2018-03-04)
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