DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1007-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84890563647
论文题名: Anthropogenic and natural causes of climate change
作者: Stern D.I. ; Kaufmann R.K.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 122, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 257
结束页码: 269
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Gas concentration
; Granger causality test
; Model specifications
; Multivariate time series models
; Radiative forcings
; Solar irradiances
; Sulfate aerosols
; Temperature changes
; Atmospheric radiation
; Climate change
; Greenhouse gases
; Climate models
; aerosol composition
; anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; climate forcing
; concentration (composition)
; Granger causality test
; greenhouse gas
; irradiance
; multivariate analysis
; radiative forcing
; temperature profile
; time series analysis
英文摘要: We test for causality between radiative forcing and temperature using multivariate time series models and Granger causality tests that are robust to the non-stationary (trending) nature of global climate data. We find that both natural and anthropogenic forcings cause temperature change and also that temperature causes greenhouse gas concentration changes. Although the effects of greenhouse gases and volcanic forcing are robust across model specifications, we cannot detect any effect of black carbon on temperature, the effect of changes in solar irradiance is weak, and the effect of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols may be only around half that usually attributed to them. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84882
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, 0200, Australia; Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA, 02215, United States
Recommended Citation:
Stern D.I.,Kaufmann R.K.. Anthropogenic and natural causes of climate change[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,122(2018-01-02)