DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1023-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84898043650
论文题名: A sensitivity-based approach to evaluating future changes in Colorado River discharge
作者: Vano J.A. ; Lettenmaier D.P.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 122, 期: 4 起始页码: 621
结束页码: 634
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Risk assessment
; Stream flow
; Water resources
; Cumulative distribution function
; Future climate scenarios
; Global Climate Model projections
; Land surface modeling
; Precipitation change
; Seasonal temperature
; Streamflow uncertainty
; Variable infiltration capacities
; Uncertainty analysis
; climate change
; climate modeling
; hydrological modeling
; infiltration
; land surface
; risk assessment
; river basin
; river discharge
; river system
; sensitivity analysis
; streamflow
; water planning
; water resource
; Colorado River [North America]
; United States
英文摘要: Projections of a drier, warmer climate in the U.S. Southwest would complicate management of the Colorado River system-yet these projections, often based on coarse resolution global climate models, are quite uncertain. We present an approach to understanding future Colorado River discharge based on land surface characterizations that map the Colorado River basin's hydrologic sensitivities (e.g., changes in streamflow magnitude) to annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation changes. The approach uses a process-based macroscale land surface model (LSM; in this case, the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model, although methods are applicable to any LSM) to develop sensitivity maps (equivalent to a simple empirical model), and uses these maps to evaluate long-term annual streamflow responses to future precipitation and temperature change. We show that global climate model projections combined with estimates of hydrologic sensitivities, estimated for different seasons and at different change increments, can provide a basis for approximating cumulative distribution functions of streamflow changes similar to more common, computationally intensive full-simulation approaches that force the hydrologic model with downscaled future climate scenarios. For purposes of assessing risk, we argue that the sensitivity-based approach produces viable first-order estimates that can be easily applied to newly released climate information to assess underlying drivers of change and bound, at least approximately, the range of future streamflow uncertainties for water resource planners. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84911
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, 326 Strand Ag Hall, Corvallis, OR, 97331, United States; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Vano J.A.,Lettenmaier D.P.. A sensitivity-based approach to evaluating future changes in Colorado River discharge[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,122(4)