DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1104-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84901196419
论文题名: The importance of reduced meat and dairy consumption for meeting stringent climate change targets
作者: Hedenus F. ; Wirsenius S. ; Johansson D.J.A.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 124, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 79
结束页码: 91
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Agriculture
; Carbon dioxide
; Global warming
; Productivity
; Agricultural soils
; Enteric fermentation
; Global warming potential
; High probability
; Manure management
; Mitigation measures
; Paddy rice fields
; Productivity improvements
; Greenhouse gases
; agricultural emission
; diet
; emission control
; environmental policy
; greenhouse gas
; sustainable development
; Bovidae
英文摘要: For agriculture, there are three major options for mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: 1) productivity improvements, particularly in the livestock sector; 2) dedicated technical mitigation measures; and 3) human dietary changes. The aim of the paper is to estimate long-term agricultural GHG emissions, under different mitigation scenarios, and to relate them to the emissions space compatible with the 2 °C temperature target. Our estimates include emissions up to 2070 from agricultural soils, manure management, enteric fermentation and paddy rice fields, and are based on IPCC Tier 2 methodology. We find that baseline agricultural CO2-equivalent emissions (using Global Warming Potentials with a 100 year time horizon) will be approximately 13 Gton CO2eq/year in 2070, compared to 7.1 Gton CO2eq/year 2000. However, if faster growth in livestock productivity is combined with dedicated technical mitigation measures, emissions may be kept to 7.7 Gton CO2eq/year in 2070. If structural changes in human diets are included, emissions may be reduced further, to 3-5 Gton CO2eq/year in 2070. The total annual emissions for meeting the 2 °C target with a chance above 50 % is in the order of 13 Gton CO2eq/year or less in 2070, for all sectors combined. We conclude that reduced ruminant meat and dairy consumption will be indispensable for reaching the 2 °C target with a high probability, unless unprecedented advances in technology take place. © 2014 The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84923
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Energy and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden
Recommended Citation:
Hedenus F.,Wirsenius S.,Johansson D.J.A.. The importance of reduced meat and dairy consumption for meeting stringent climate change targets[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,124(2018-01-02)