DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1082-7
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84901196316
论文题名: Scientific uncertainty and climate change: Part I. Uncertainty and unabated emissions
作者: Lewandowsky S. ; Risbey J.S. ; Smithson M. ; Newell B.R. ; Hunter J.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 124, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 21
结束页码: 37
语种: 英语
英文关键词: decision making
; unabated emissions
; Uncertainty
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Decision making
; Risk perception
; Sea level
; Climate science
; Climate sensitivity
; Discount rates
; Global temperatures
; Protective measures
; Scientific uncertainty
; Statistical properties
; Uncertainty
; Uncertainty analysis
; climate change
; climatology
; decision making
; global climate
; risk factor
; risk perception
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Uncertainty forms an integral part of climate science, and it is often used to argue against mitigative action. This article presents an analysis of uncertainty in climate sensitivity that is robust to a range of assumptions. We show that increasing uncertainty is necessarily associated with greater expected damages from warming, provided the function relating warming to damages is convex. This constraint is unaffected by subjective or cultural risk-perception factors, it is unlikely to be overcome by the discount rate, and it is independent of the presumed magnitude of climate sensitivity. The analysis also extends to "second-order" uncertainty; that is, situations in which experts disagree. Greater disagreement among experts increases the likelihood that the risk of exceeding a global temperature threshold is greater. Likewise, increasing uncertainty requires increasingly greater protective measures against sea level rise. This constraint derives directly from the statistical properties of extreme values. We conclude that any appeal to uncertainty compels a stronger, rather than weaker, concern about unabated warming than in the absence of uncertainty. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84928
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia; University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom; CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Hobart, TAS, Australia; Australian National University, Canberra, Australia; University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, TAS, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Lewandowsky S.,Risbey J.S.,Smithson M.,et al. Scientific uncertainty and climate change: Part I. Uncertainty and unabated emissions[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,124(2018-01-02)