DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1128-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84902269340
论文题名: How is CO2 affecting yields and technological progress? A statistical analysis
作者: Attavanich W. ; McCarl B.A.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 124, 期: 4 起始页码: 747
结束页码: 762
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric chemistry
; Climate change
; Cotton
; Crops
; Cultivation
; Mathematical models
; Atmospheric carbon dioxide
; Climate condition
; Climate variability
; Crop production
; Econometric model
; Enrichment experiments
; Historical data
; Technological progress
; Carbon dioxide
; C3 plant
; C4 plant
; carbon dioxide
; cereal
; climate change
; crop production
; crop yield
; econometrics
; statistical analysis
; technological change
; Glycine max
; Gossypium hirsutum
; Triticum aestivum
; Zea mays
英文摘要: This paper analyzes the impact of climate, crop production technology, and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) on current and future crop yields. The analysis of crop yields endeavors to advance the literature by estimating the effect of atmospheric CO2 on observed crop yields. This is done using an econometric model estimated over pooled historical data for 1950-2009 and data from the free air CO2 enrichment experiments. The main econometric findings are: 1) Yields of C3 crops (soybeans, cotton, and wheat) directly respond to the elevated CO2, while yields of C4 crops (corn and sorghum) do not, but they are found to indirectly benefit from elevated CO2 in times and places of drought stress; 2) The effect of technological progress on mean yields is non-linear; 3) Ignoring atmospheric CO2 in an econometric model of crop yield likely leads to overestimates of the pure effects of technological progress on crop yields of about 51, 15, 17, 9, and 1 % of observed yield gain for cotton, soybeans, wheat, corn and sorghum, respectively; 4) Average climate conditions and climate variability contribute in a statistically significant way to average crop yields and their variability; and 5) The effect of CO2 fertilization generally outweighs the effect of climate change on mean crop yields in many regions resulting in an increase of 7-22, 4-47, 5-26, 65-96, and 3-35 % for yields of corn, sorghum, soybeans, cotton, and wheat, respectively. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84989
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Economics, Kasetsart University, 50 Phahonyothin Rd., Chatuchak, Bangkok, 10900, Thailand; Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas AandM University, 2124 TAMU, College Station, TX, 77843-2124, United States
Recommended Citation:
Attavanich W.,McCarl B.A.. How is CO2 affecting yields and technological progress? A statistical analysis[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,124(4)