globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1083-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84901234997
论文题名:
Scientific uncertainty and climate change: Part II. Uncertainty and mitigation
作者: Lewandowsky S.; Risbey J.S.; Smithson M.; Newell B.R.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 124, 期:2018-01-02
起始页码: 39
结束页码: 52
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Gas emissions ; Global warming ; Monte Carlo methods ; Future climate ; Public debate ; Scientific uncertainty ; Greenhouse gases ; climate change ; global perspective ; global warming ; Monte Carlo analysis ; simulation ; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: In public debate surrounding climate change, scientific uncertainty is often cited in connection with arguments against mitigative action. This article examines the role of uncertainty about future climate change in determining the likely success or failure of mitigative action. We show by Monte Carlo simulation that greater uncertainty translates into a greater likelihood that mitigation efforts will fail to limit global warming to a target (e.g., 2 °C). The effect of uncertainty can be reduced by limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Taken together with the fact that greater uncertainty also increases the potential damages arising from unabated emissions (Lewandowsky et al. 2014), any appeal to uncertainty implies a stronger, rather than weaker, need to cut greenhouse gas emissions than in the absence of uncertainty. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84991
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia; University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom; CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Hobart, TAS, Australia; Australian National University, Canberra, Australia; University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia

Recommended Citation:
Lewandowsky S.,Risbey J.S.,Smithson M.,et al. Scientific uncertainty and climate change: Part II. Uncertainty and mitigation[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,124(2018-01-02)
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