| DOI: | 10.1002/2015GL065665
|
| 论文题名: | Using scaling for macroweather forecasting including the pause |
| 作者: | Lovejoy S.
|
| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
|
| ISSN: | 0094-9092
|
| EISSN: | 1944-8823
|
| 出版年: | 2015
|
| 卷: | 42, 期:17 | | 起始页码: | 7148
|
| 结束页码: | 7155
|
| 语种: | 英语
|
| 英文关键词: | climate
; forecast
; stochastic
|
| Scopus关键词: | Climate models
; Forecasting
; Stochastic systems
; Atmospheric model
; climate
; Large system
; Model inter comparisons
; Project phase
; stochastic
; Twentieth century
; Two parameter
; Stochastic models
; atmospheric modeling
; climate modeling
; hindcasting
; stochasticity
; warming
; weather forecasting
|
| 英文摘要: | The ScaLIng Macroweather model (SLIMM) is a new class of stochastic atmospheric model. It exploits the large system memory to overcome the biases of conventional numerical climate models, it makes hindcasts and forecasts over macroweather forecast horizons (≈10 days to decades). Using the simplest (scalar), SLIMM model with only two parameters, we present various twentieth century hindcasts including several of the slowdown ("pause") in the warming since 1998. The 1999-2013 hindcast is accurate to within ±0.11 K, with all the 2002-2013 anomalies hindcast to within ±0.02 K. In comparison, the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 hindcasts were on average about 0.2 K too warm. ©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84943251620&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL065665&partnerID=40&md5=8f35add5a49f00e2de137c93cc3c1657
|
| Citation statistics: |
|
| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
|
| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8708
|
| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
|
|
There are no files associated with this item.
|
|
作者单位: | Physics Department, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada
|
| Recommended Citation: | |
Lovejoy S.. Using scaling for macroweather forecasting including the pause[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(17).
|
|
|