| DOI: | 10.1002/2015GL063837
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| 论文题名: | A heuristic evaluation of long-term global sea level acceleration |
| 作者: | Spada G.; Olivieri M.; Galassi G.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-9415
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| EISSN: | 1944-9146
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 42, 期:10 | | 起始页码: | 4166
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| 结束页码: | 4172
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | sea level change
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| Scopus关键词: | Acceleration
; Uncertainty analysis
; Global mean sea levels
; Global sea levels
; Heuristic evaluation
; Scholarly journals
; Sea-level reconstruction
; Sealevel change
; Secular accelerations
; Social implication
; Sea level
; future prospect
; global change
; heuristics
; long-term change
; reconstruction
; sea level change
; twentieth century
; uncertainty analysis
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| 英文摘要: | In view of the scientific and social implications, the global mean sea level rise (GMSLR) and its possible causes and future trend have been a challenge for so long. For the twentieth century, reconstructions generally indicate a rate of GMSLR in the range of 1.5 to 2.0 mm yr-1. However, the existence of nonlinear trends is still debated, and current estimates of the secular acceleration are subject to ample uncertainties. Here we use various GMSLR estimates published on scholarly journals since the 1940s for a heuristic assessment of global sea level acceleration. The approach, alternative to sea level reconstructions, is based on simple statistical methods and exploits the principles of meta-analysis. Our results point to a global sea level acceleration of 0.54 ± 0.27 mm/yr/century (1σ) between 1898 and 1975. This supports independent estimates and suggests that a sea level acceleration since the early 1900s is more likely than currently believed. ©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84931578500&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL063837&partnerID=40&md5=db64244853ea432a28578070789281bd
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9030
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Dipartimento di Scienze di Base e Fondamenti, Università di Urbino, Urbino, Italy
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Spada G.,Olivieri M.,Galassi G.. A heuristic evaluation of long-term global sea level acceleration[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(10).
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