| 项目编号: | 1543651
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| 项目名称: | EAGER: Effects of environmental variability on population dynamics in the Long-Term Ecological Research network |
| 作者: | Thomas Miller
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| 承担单位: | William Marsh Rice University
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| 批准年: | 2014
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| 开始日期: | 2015-07-01
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| 结束日期: | 2018-06-30
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| 资助金额: | USD309268
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| 资助来源: | US-NSF
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| 项目类别: | Standard Grant
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| 国家: | US
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 特色学科分类: | Biological Sciences - Environmental Biology
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| 英文关键词: | population dynamics
; environmental variability
; project
; effect
; population growth rate
; population ecology
; datum
; population-level datum
; negative effect
; long term ecological research site
; long-standing assumption
; positive effect
; lter researcher
; long term ecological research
; postdoctoral researcher
; long-term population datum
|
| 英文摘要: | A common perception is that environmental fluctuations - drought one year, floods the next - have negative effects on populations and could drive them to extinction. This proposal will use existing long-term population data collected at Long Term Ecological Research sites to test this perception rigorously. Results could overturn this long-standing assumption and provide fundamental new insights to the field of population ecology. Data synthesized by this project will be available through a global population dynamics database that is used worldwide. A clearer understanding of how environmental variability affects population dynamics will improve conservation and management efforts. Evidence for positive effects of environmental variability will alter strategies to conserve threatened species or to manage invasive species. The project will support a postdoctoral researcher and a data analyst, and will provide training opportunities at the interface of modeling, statistical analyses, and data synthesis for graduate and undergraduate students.
This project will attempt the first large-scale synthesis of demographic data to assess the effects of environmental variability on population dynamics. Twenty-five Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) projects have been collecting population-level data for decades, yet these data are rarely used to address key questions in population ecology. The investigator will collect all LTER time series of abundances or vital rates by manually inspecting each of the > 6,000 data sets available from the LTER data portal, by combing data archives, and by contacting LTER researchers directly. The data will be analyzed to test the magnitude and direction of skewness in the distribution of log(population growth rate) as an indicator of non-linear responses to environmental variation. When spatially-replicated time series are available, they will be used to separate process error from sampling error and analyzed with hierarchical models. Once skewness in distributions of population growth rates is quantified, the investigator will attempt to identify key environmental drivers. This is the riskiest part of the project; when possible, these will allow the researcher to quantify demographic response functions and predict the effects of variability on population dynamics with greater confidence. Evidence that effects of environmental variability are commonly neutral or positive will fundamentally alter understanding of population dynamics in stochastic environments. |
| 资源类型: | 项目
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/94158
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| Appears in Collections: | 影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Thomas Miller. EAGER: Effects of environmental variability on population dynamics in the Long-Term Ecological Research network. 2014-01-01.
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