DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069575
论文题名: ENSO response to high-latitude volcanic eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere: The role of the initial conditions
作者: Pausata F.S.R. ; Karamperidou C. ; Caballero R. ; Battisti D.S.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8745
EISSN: 1944-8476
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 16 起始页码: 8694
结束页码: 8702
语种: 英语
英文关键词: ENSO predictability
; extra-tropical volcanic eruptions
; initial conditions
; tropical Pacific
Scopus关键词: Tropics
; Volcanoes
; Atmosphere-ocean coupling
; Differential response
; Earth system model
; ENSO predictability
; Initial conditions
; Northern Hemispheres
; Tropical Pacific
; Volcanic eruptions
; Nickel
英文摘要: A large ensemble of Earth System Model simulations is analyzed to show that high-latitude Northern Hemisphere eruptions give rise to El Niño-like anomalies in the winter following the eruption, the amplitude of which depends on the state of the tropical Pacific at the time of the eruption. The El Niño-like anomalies are almost three times larger when the eruption occurs during an incipient La Niña or during a neutral state compared to an incipient El Niño. The differential response results from stronger atmosphere-ocean coupling and extra-tropical feedbacks during an incipient La Niña compared to El Niño. Differences in the response continue through the second and third years following the eruption. When the eruption happens in a year of an incipient El Niño, a large cold (La Niña-like) anomaly develops in year 2; if the eruption occurs in a year of an incipient La Niña, no anomalies are simulated in year 2 and a La Niña-like response appears in year 3. After the El Niño-like anomaly in the first winter, the overall tendency of ENSO in the following 2 years is toward a La Niña state. Our results highlight the high sensitivity of tropical Pacific dynamics under volcanic forcing to the ENSO initial state and lay the groundwork for improved predictions of the global climatic response to high-latitude volcanic eruptions. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84983374251&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL069575&partnerID=40&md5=8bbc373f0b77b2b7edabba7060937de6
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9708
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm, Sweden
Recommended Citation:
Pausata F.S.R.,Karamperidou C.,Caballero R.,et al. ENSO response to high-latitude volcanic eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere: The role of the initial conditions[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(16).