DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069408
论文题名: Seasonal mean temperature changes control future heat waves
作者: Argüeso D. ; Di Luca A. ; Perkins-Kirkpatrick S.E. ; Evans J.P.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8884
EISSN: 1944-8615
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 14 起始页码: 7653
结束页码: 7660
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate projections
; CMIP5
; heat waves
; temperature changes
; temperature variability
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climate projection
; CMIP5
; Heat waves
; Temperature changes
; Temperature variability
; Climatology
; climate change
; global climate
; heat wave
; seasonal variation
; temperature profile
; warming
; Europe
; North America
英文摘要: Increased temperature will result in longer, more frequent, and more intense heat waves. Changes in temperature variability have been deemed necessary to account for future heat wave characteristics. However, this has been quantified only in Europe and North America, while the rest of the globe remains unexplored. Using late century global climate projections, we show that annual mean temperature increases is the key factor defining heat wave changes in most regions. We find that commonly studied areas are an exception rather than the standard and the mean climate change signal generally outweighs any influence from variability changes. More importantly, differences in warming across seasons are responsible for most of the heat wave changes and their consideration relegates the contribution of variability to a marginal role. This reveals that accurately capturing mean seasonal changes is crucial to estimate future heat waves and reframes our interpretation of future temperature extremes. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84978517874&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL069408&partnerID=40&md5=48df88e98dc68ce5faf6aedb3439fa71
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9847
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Argüeso D.,Di Luca A.,Perkins-Kirkpatrick S.E.,et al. Seasonal mean temperature changes control future heat waves[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(14).