| DOI: | 10.2172/1322290
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| 报告号: | SAND2014--17932
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| 报告题名: | Greenhouse Gas Source Attribution: Measurements Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification |
| 作者: | Liu, Zhen; Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik; Najm, Habib N.
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| 出版年: | 2014
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| 发表日期: | 2014-09-01
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| 总页数: | 120
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| 国家: | 美国
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 中文主题词: | 空气质量
; 排放物
; 大气化学
; 频散
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| 主题词: | AIR QUALITY
; EMISSIONS
; ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY
; DISPERSION
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| 英文摘要: | In this project we have developed atmospheric measurement capabilities and a suite of atmospheric modeling and analysis tools that are well suited for verifying emissions of green- house gases (GHGs) on an urban-through-regional scale. We have for the first time applied the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to simulate atmospheric CO2 . This will allow for the examination of regional-scale transport and distribution of CO2 along with air pollutants traditionally studied using CMAQ at relatively high spatial and temporal resolution with the goal of leveraging emissions verification efforts for both air quality and climate. We have developed a bias-enhanced Bayesian inference approach that can remedy the well-known problem of transport model errors in atmospheric CO2 inversions. We have tested the approach using data and model outputs from the TransCom3 global CO2 inversion comparison project. We have also performed two prototyping studies on inversion approaches in the generalized convection-diffusion context. One of these studies employed Polynomial Chaos Expansion to accelerate the evaluation of a regional transport model and enable efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior for Bayesian inference. The other approach uses de- terministic inversion of a convection-diffusion-reaction system in the presence of uncertainty. These approaches should, in principle, be applicable to realistic atmospheric problems with moderate adaptation. We outline a regional greenhouse gas source inference system that integrates (1) two ap- proaches of atmospheric dispersion simulation and (2) a class of Bayesian inference and un- certainty quantification algorithms. We use two different and complementary approaches to simulate atmospheric dispersion. Specifically, we use a Eulerian chemical transport model CMAQ and a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model - FLEXPART-WRF. These two models share the same WRF assimilated meteorology fields, making it possible to perform a hybrid simulation, in which the Eulerian model (CMAQ) can be used to compute the initial condi- tion needed by the Lagrangian model, while the source-receptor relationships for a large state vector can be efficiently computed using the Lagrangian model in its backward mode. In ad- dition, CMAQ has a complete treatment of atmospheric chemistry of a suite of traditional air pollutants, many of which could help attribute GHGs from different sources. The inference of emissions sources using atmospheric observations is cast as a Bayesian model calibration problem, which is solved using a variety of Bayesian techniques, such as the bias-enhanced Bayesian inference algorithm, which accounts for the intrinsic model deficiency, Polynomial Chaos Expansion to accelerate model evaluation and Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, and Karhunen-Lo %60 eve (KL) Expansion to reduce the dimensionality of the state space. We have established an atmospheric measurement site in Livermore, CA and are collect- ing continuous measurements of CO2 , CH4 and other species that are typically co-emitted with these GHGs. Measurements of co-emitted species can assist in attributing the GHGs to different emissions sectors. Automatic calibrations using traceable standards are performed routinely for the gas-phase measurements. We are also collecting standard meteorological data at the Livermore site as well as planetary boundary height measurements using a ceilometer. The location of the measurement site is well suited to sample air transported between the San Francisco Bay area and the California Central Valley. |
| URL: | http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1322290
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 研究报告
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/41448
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| Appears in Collections: | 过去全球变化的重建
影响、适应和脆弱性
科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
全球变化的国际研究计划
气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响
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| 1322290.pdf（26205KB） | 研究报告 | -- | 开放获取 | | View
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作者单位: | Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Liu, Zhen,Safta, Cosmin,Sargsyan, Khachik,et al. Greenhouse Gas Source Attribution: Measurements Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification. 2014-01-01.
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